The Crude Volatility Swing
Across 2 sectors, 4 filers are signaling rising cost pressure. The theme appeared in 2025Q2 and broke into the corpus by 2025Q3. Direction flipped — 2025Q2 was 88% falling; 2026Q1 now 67% rising. Mixed: cost (63%), supply (16%), demand (14%). One disclosure notes "Brent price averaged $81 per barrel for the first three months of 2026, compared with $76 per barrel during the first three months of 2025." Continuing to spread to more sectors.
Oil majors are experiencing volatile crude prices driven by demand fluctuations and geopolitical pressures, with prices oscillating between weakness and modest strength across Q2 2025 through Q1 2026.
DISTINCT NEW FILERS PER QUARTER
✦ WHAT THE DIFF CAUGHT
Narrative shifts from backward-looking price weakness (Q2–Q3 2025) to current-state demand support and forward-looking price recovery (Q1 2026), reflecting real-time market stabilization after volatility shocks.
REPRESENTATIVE SIGNAL FROM FILINGS
“Brent price averaged $81 per barrel for the first three months of 2026, compared with $76 per barrel during the first three months of 2025”
Brent crude oil prices rose from $76/barrel in Q1 2025 to $81/barrel in Q1 2026, and further increased to approximately $123/barrel by end of April 2026.
“price of crude oil per barrel (Brent) increased by 94% compared with end of 2025”
The price of Brent crude oil per barrel increased by 94% compared with the end of 2025.
DRIVERS