The Natural Gas Price Volatility Cycle
Across 1 sector, 2 filers are signaling rising cost pressure. Visible since 2025Q2, with activity continuing through 2026Q1. Almost entirely a cost story (89%). One disclosure notes "U.S. Henry Hub natural gas price averaged $3.49 per thousand cubic feet (MCF) for the first nine months of 2025, compared with $2.20 per MCF." Continuing to gain pace.
Chevron is documenting a sharp U.S. natural gas price spike in 2025 (up ~65% year-over-year) followed by a rapid collapse in early 2026 as storage normalized and seasonal supply pressures eased.
DISTINCT NEW FILERS PER QUARTER
✦ WHAT THE DIFF CAUGHT
Narrative shifts from year-over-year price elevation (2024–2025) to intra-year collapse (Q1–Q2 2026), signaling oversupply reversal after weather-driven demand drivers dissipated.
REPRESENTATIVE SIGNAL FROM FILINGS
“U.S. Henry Hub natural gas price averaged $3.49 per thousand cubic feet (MCF) for the first nine months of 2025, compared with $2.20 per MCF”
U.S. Henry Hub natural gas prices averaged $3.49 per MCF in the first nine months of 2025, up 59% from $2.20 per MCF in the prior-year period.
“U.S. Henry Hub natural gas prices averaged $3.44 per MMBTU in the second quarter of 2025, an increase of 82 percent”
Henry Hub natural gas prices increased 82% year-over-year, rising from $1.89 to $3.44 per MMBTU in Q2.
DRIVERS