The Permian-Guyana Ascendancy
3 filers across 1 sector are flagging higher supply conditions. First surfaced in 2025Q3; tracked through 2026Q1. Mixed: supply (62%), demand (19%), strategic (19%). Shifting from explaining to guiding — the narrative is turning forward. Recent filings describe "4.6 million oil-equivalent barrels per day in 2025 increased 520 thousand from 2024, driven by Permian." Still gaining momentum.
ExxonMobil is expanding production volumes and earnings from its Permian and Guyana upstream assets through strategic investments and acquisitions, with measurable year-over-year volume growth and material earnings accretion.
DISTINCT NEW FILERS PER QUARTER
✦ WHAT THE DIFF CAUGHT
Language shifts from backward-looking earnings impact ($630M–$1.5B) to forward-looking production guidance (4.6–4.8 million barrels per day), signaling confidence in sustained growth trajectory.
REPRESENTATIVE SIGNAL FROM FILINGS
“4.6 million oil-equivalent barrels per day in 2025 increased 520 thousand from 2024, driven by Permian”
Oil-equivalent production increased by 520 thousand barrels per day year-over-year in 2025, driven by Permian expansion.
“growth in TCO, the Permian Basin, and the Gulf of America, as well as the acquisition of Hess, was partly offset by asset sales”
Growth was driven by TCO, the Permian Basin, Gulf of America expansion, and the Hess acquisition, partly offset by asset sales.
DRIVERS