The Rate-Starved Capex Slump
5 filers across 1 sector are flagging higher demand. First surfaced in 2025Q2; tracked through 2026Q2. Consensus loosened: 2025Q2 was 67% falling; 2025Q4 now 55%. Reached 3 sectors at its 2025Q4 peak, now concentrated in 1 sector. Mixed: cost (39%), demand (33%), risk (18%). Present-tense — companies describing what is happening now. Recent filings describe "significantly higher net revenues in interest rate products." Still gaining momentum.
Elevated interest rates are directly suppressing customer demand for agricultural, turf, and construction equipment by raising the cost of capital financing, driving lower shipment volumes and sales across Deere's core markets.
DISTINCT NEW FILERS PER QUARTER
✦ WHAT THE DIFF CAUGHT
Language shifts from backward-looking backward_looking causality (lower volumes *were* driven by rates) to present-tense constraint (rates *are tempering* / *negatively impacting* current demand), signaling persistence of headwind.
REPRESENTATIVE SIGNAL FROM FILINGS
“significantly higher net revenues in interest rate products”
Interest rate products achieved significantly higher net revenues within FICC intermediation.
“Higher interest rates increase the cost of carrying inventory for our dealers”
Higher interest rates increase the cost of carrying inventory for dealers, pressuring their economics.
DRIVERS