The Supply Narrative Fracture
4 of 5 filers across 1 sector are flagging higher cost pressure. Surged through 2025Q3, now plateauing. Direction flipped — 2025Q3 was 43% rising; 2025Q4 now 67% falling. Primarily a supply story (54%), with a demand overlay (38%). Present-tense — companies describing what is happening now. Recent filings describe "March experienced the largest ever monthly gain in oil prices driven by reduced global oil supply."
Oil majors are describing a market caught between rising non-OPEC+ and stable OPEC+ supply and strong demand, but disagree on whether supply is constrained or abundant.
DISTINCT NEW FILERS PER QUARTER
✦ WHAT THE DIFF CAUGHT
Language shifts from XOM's demand-led price support story (early period) to SLB's cautionary "fully supplied" framing (current), reflecting disagreement on near-term price direction.
REPRESENTATIVE SIGNAL FROM FILINGS
“March experienced the largest ever monthly gain in oil prices driven by reduced global oil supply.”
March saw the largest monthly oil price gain ever due to reduced global oil supply.
“global oil supplies increased faster than global oil demand”
Global oil supplies increased at a faster rate than global oil demand in 2025.
DRIVERS